Hungary's Orban Heavily Anti-Ukraine   02/25 06:11

   

   BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) -- Facing tough odds in an upcoming election, 
Hungary's pro-Russian prime minister is trying to convince voters that the 
greatest threat to the country is not economic stagnation -- the focus of his 
top opponent -- but neighboring Ukraine.

   Viktor Orbn is running an aggressive media campaign replete with 
disinformation whose central message is that Hungarians should refuse to align 
with the rest of Europe in supporting Ukraine against Russia's invasion. That 
path, he argues, risks bankrupting the country and getting its youth killed on 
the front lines.

   Billboards erected across the country show AI-generated images of Ukrainian 
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy flanked by European officials, holding out his 
hand as if demanding money. It's a not-so-subtle reference to the European 
Union's efforts to help Ukraine financially and bolster its defenses as the war 
enters its fifth year.

   "Our message to Brussels: We won't pay!" the publicly funded billboards read.

   If there had been any doubt, it became clear on Monday why the outcome of 
Hungary's upcoming election will reverberate beyond its borders. Hungary 
blocked a new package of EU sanctions on Russia in response to interruptions in 
Russian oil supplies that pass through Ukraine, and vowed to veto any further 
pro-Ukraine policies until oil flows resume.

   Orbn is widely seen as the Kremlin's strongest ally in the EU. While almost 
all of the bloc's other 26 nations have distanced themselves from Russia since 
it launched the war on Feb. 24, 2022, Hungary has deepened cooperation.

   The prime minister has cast his relationship with Russian President Vladimir 
Putin as pragmatic, stemming from Hungary's access to reliable supplies of 
Russian oil and gas. But Orbn's anti-LGBTQ+ policies, crackdowns on the media 
and nongovernmental organizations, and his labeling of critics as "foreign 
agents" have led to accusations that he's reading from Putin's authoritarian 
playbook.

   Campaign of fear

   Orbn, who retook office in 2010, faces the strongest challenge to his power 
in an election set for April 12. The EU's longest-serving leader and his 
right-wing Fidesz party are trailing in most independent polls to an upstart 
center-right challenger, Pter Magyar.

   A 44-year-old lawyer and former Fidesz insider who broke with the party in 
2024, Magyar has focused his campaign on stemming the rising costs of living, 
improving social services and reining in corruption. He also promises to 
restore Hungary's Western orientation and bolster democratic institutions which 
have eroded during Orbn's 16 years in power.

   His rise was aided by political scandals that have damaged the credibility 
of Orbn's party; a presidential pardon given to an accomplice in a child 
sexual abuse case led to a public outcry, prompting the president and justice 
minister to resign.

   Losing ground to Magyar and his Tisza party, Orbn and Fidesz have sought to 
change the conversation. They have blanketed the country with taxpayer-funded 
billboards, as well as advertisements on radio, television and social media. A 
petition mailed to every Hungarian of voting age claimed the EU's plans to help 
Ukraine financially would bring economic ruin.

   Other ads, paid for by a shadowy pro-government organization with Fidesz 
ties, depict Magyar as a puppet of Zelenskyy and the EU who would sell out the 
country to foreign interests and draw Hungary into the war.

   Hungary's public media, along with many private news outlets loyal to 
Orbn's government, faithfully mimic the claims. They say Ukraine wants to 
prolong the bloody conflict that has killed tens of thousands of its citizens 
-- and is conspiring with the EU to do it.

   Disinformation is fueled by artificial intelligence

   Orbn has recently claimed that the EU -- not Russia -- poses the greatest 
threat to Hungary. He says rising defense spending across Europe -- driven by 
Russia's war and pressure from the U.S. to increase NATO contributions -- is 
evidence that the EU is preparing for conflict with Moscow and plans to 
forcibly conscript Hungarians to fight.

   In an AI-generated video Fidesz released on social media last week, a little 
girl asks her forlorn mother in Hungarian: "Mommy, when is daddy coming home?"

   In the next frame, the fictional father -- bound, blindfolded and kneeling 
on a muddy battlefield -- is approached by a soldier, and shot in the head. "We 
won't allow others to decide on the fates of our families," a narrator says. 
"Let's not take a risk. Fidesz is the safe choice."

   Although some EU countries have proposed sending troops to Ukraine to 
monitor any future ceasefire, they are not intended to engage in combat, and 
participation would be voluntary, said Andrs Rcz, a Russia expert at the 
German Council on Foreign Relations.

   Rcz notes that, despite the false premise behind many of Orbn's claims, 
Fidesz has won two previous elections after raising fears that its political 
opponent would drag the country into the war.

   "They are trying to max this out. They have nothing else," Rcz said. 
"Populists often try to define an enemy, often an imaginary one, and then offer 
protection to the society from that enemy. Ukraine has been ideal from this 
perspective."

   Escalating tensions

   For years, Orbn has sought to stymie EU efforts to provide financial and 
military support to Ukraine, and he has vigorously opposed sanctions targeting 
Russian oil and officials.

   Tensions with Ukraine grew recently after Russian oil shipments to Hungary 
were interrupted; Ukraine blamed the disruption on a Russian drone strike in 
late January that damaged a pipeline. Orbn called it blackmail.

   Last week, his government retaliated by halting diesel shipments to Ukraine 
and threatening to veto a 90-billion-euro ($106-billion) EU loan destined for 
Kyiv. On Monday, it blocked the 20th round of EU sanctions against Russia.

   The anti-Ukraine campaign has resonated with many Hungarians loyal to 
Fidesz. Despite Tisza's advantage in the polls, its victory is far from assured.

   Still, many Hungarians are dubious of Orban's anti-Ukraine messaging. On 
Sunday, hundreds of Hungarians and Ukrainians, many of them refugees, gathered 
in central Budapest to commemorate the four-year anniversary of Russia's 
invasion. Marching toward a demonstration outside the Russian embassy, 
participants held Ukrainian and Hungarian flags, and chanted, "Stop Putin, stop 
the war!"

   Budapest's liberal mayor, Gergely Karcsony, told The Associated Press that 
Orbn's messaging and policies are "a betrayal not only of Ukraine, but of 
Hungary's national interest."

   "I hope that this will go into history as a failed policy, but that history 
will also remember that there were some who stood up for what is right," he 
said.

   One of the marchers was Ester Zhivatovska, a 19-year-old veterinary medicine 
student who came from the Ukrainian port city of Odesa to study in Budapest. 
She said the billboards depicting her country's president are laughable.

   "The main message of these billboards is that Ukraine will steal Hungarian 
money," she said. "But come on, you're using these AI images from the Hungarian 
budget to do what? To win elections."