WARSAW, Ind. (DTN) -- Indiana's corn and soybean crops have been shaped by highly localized weather this year, with heavy rainfall creating challenges in some areas while other fields have maintained strong yield potential.

Some locales faced planting delays, but the bigger story came in June when excessive rainfall left saturated soils, drowned-out spots and pockets of intense rain across parts of the state. Other areas moved through the season with more favorable conditions. The result is a crop with wide variability across Indiana, but as the crop moves through August, favorable conditions have growers and agronomists optimistic about how it will finish.

The 2026 DTN Digital Yield Tour estimates Indiana's corn and soybean crops will finish below the USDA RMA five-year averages.

CORN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2026: 202.2 bushels per acre (bpa)

-- DTN 2025: 206.1 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 210.8 bpa

SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2026: 61.7 bpa

-- DTN 2025: 60.5 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 62.6 bpa

While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is in its ninth season, this is the third year that employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. The tour estimates reported here are based on yield models as of Aug. 1. The models update every two weeks and do not incorporate weather forecasts.

For more about how those models work and what makes them unique, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Updated yield model results will be shared in early September on DTN's online products. You can view a Reporter's Notebook that previewed the Digital Yield Tour at https://www.dtnpf.com/…. On Aug. 14, you can find the post-tour Reporter's Notebook video at https://www.dtnpf.com/…. Also, later in August you can hear a Field Posts Podcast about the tour results at https://www.dtnpf.com/….

WEATHER COMMENTARY

According to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick, Indiana had much of the same weather as Illinois this season, although it was less drastic both in terms of temperatures and precipitation. Drought was a feature in the spring, with a zone of deep drought across the middle of the state to start March.

"But a heavy rainfall pattern in the spring quickly eliminated that zone by mid-April," he said. "Temperatures were variable throughout the spring and much of the summer as well, but the state experienced some big swings from May through July. That resulted in some late-spring cold weather, but the freezes were not widespread like they were in other states."

Indiana endured a couple rounds of high heat in June and especially July, Baranick noted, but those were surrounded by periods of cooler weather. Southern areas saw heavy rain and flooding this summer, while the north saw more severe weather and a derecho on June 10.

While western parts of the Corn Belt dealt with longer stretches of dryness, rain was more frequent throughout Indiana.

"That didn't stop dryness from building in late July though, leaving crops eagerly awaiting a system that moved through in the first couple of days of August," Baranick added.

(Editor's Note: This weather commentary covers conditions through the end of July. Severe weather moved through parts of Indiana on Tuesday, Aug. 11. Read more about Tuesday's severe weather here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…. If your farm experienced crop damage from the storms, please let us know.)

MARKET COMMENTARY

Indiana enters August with a fairly average crop condition score of 66% good to excellent, which is 3 points ahead of the same point in 2025, said DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery.

"There are areas, particularly along the eastern border, that experienced periods of dryness, and that may be something the 2026 DTN models are picking up on leading to a lower initial estimate," he said. "All in all, considering Indiana's state average yield in 2025 was a record, a modest falloff in 2026 would likely still result in a very good overall crop."

The DTN Digital Yield Tour's Aug. 1 soybean prediction would fall just below the previous five-year average for Indiana, Montgomery noted. As of the first week of August, USDA reports that 65% of the crop is in good or excellent condition, which also is just slightly below the five-year average for the state.

"A favorable growing season for the eastern soybean belt makes me believe an average yield expectation is reasonable, if not just a touch above 2025, depending on how pod-filling finishes in August," he added.

OBSERVATIONS

-- Dan Quinn, Purdue University Extension corn specialist, and Shaun Casteel, Purdue University Extension soybean specialist:

Indiana's corn crop got off to a strong start this spring before excessive June rainfall created significant variability across the state, according to Dan Quinn, Purdue University Extension corn specialist.

"Planting progress was pretty strong this year," Quinn said. "We had good emergence and not a lot of replants."

That changed in June as many areas received 15 to 20 inches of rain, leading to flooding, drowned-out spots and uneven crop development. Earlier-planted corn generally handled the flooding conditions better, Quinn noted.

July weather helped the crop recover. Lower temperatures, adequate moisture and favorable pollination conditions have improved the crop outlook despite lingering variability.

"I think that's been the challenge -- just so much variability, even within individual counties," Quinn said. "It's been very localized depending on where you're at."

Gray leaf spot has been the primary disease concern this season, while tar spot, southern rust and insect pressure have remained relatively low. Quinn said growers should continue walking fields and monitoring disease pressure to ensure a well-timed fungicide application, if needed.

While he doesn't expect a record state yield because of June's weather, Quinn believes many areas still have strong yield potential.

"I would expect Indiana to be around that 200-bushel mark," he said. "There are some challenging areas, but there are also some really good areas."

Soybeans faced many of the same challenges, with early planting progress followed by a wet, cool spring and an unusually intense June creating wide variability across the state, according to Shaun Casteel, Purdue University Extension soybean specialist.

"That timely planting is a huge stage for yield potential," Casteel said, noting many growers got a good portion of the crop in by mid-May despite periods of heavy rain that delayed planting in parts of southeast, east-central and northeast Indiana.

Low May temperatures also slowed emergence for later-planted beans.

"A lot of beans did take a while to get up and out of the ground," Casteel said, pointing to an early-May freeze and unseasonably cool weeks that followed.

June turned unusually wet, he said, comparing it to 2015 -- one of the wettest Junes on record. Western Indiana came close to 20 inches of rain, leaving behind what Casteel called "Swiss cheese fields" pocketed with ponded, drowned-out areas.

"We've got a lot of Swiss cheese fields that don't have the full yield potential for the entire field," Casteel said, though he added compromised stands and root systems have largely grown out of it in recent weeks.

Disease and insect pressure have stayed light so far this season. "I have not seen high enough levels to hit thresholds," he said of bean leaf beetle, Japanese beetle and green stink bugs, though he noted scouting should continue. He said he's also keeping an eye out for signs of sudden death syndrome (SDS), brown stem rot and red crown rot. All three soil-borne diseases express similar leaf symptoms during late reproductive development.

One notable trend: Fields that received a spring sulfur application appear to be recovering better from saturated conditions than those that didn't, which Casteel said is worth watching as growers rethink soil fertility needs.

As for yield, Casteel pushed back on some early yield estimates in the 61-bushel-per-acre range, which would tie a state record.

"I don't see us getting there," he said. "I'm thinking mid-50s is probably within reach for a state average."

He noted soybeans make most of their yield in August and September, and current conditions -- warm days, cool nights and adequate moisture -- are favorable for seed fill. "In really good-looking beans, we could be packing on 4 bushels per acre per day," he said, adding that a timely harvest will also play a role in how the final numbers shake out as dry beans lose yield in water weight and harvest efficiency.

-- Gary Kerr, Franklin County, Indiana:

Gary Kerr of Brookville, Indiana, said an unusually dry and warm April allowed much of his planting to get done during the month, but conditions quickly changed in May as cool, wet weather slowed soybean emergence and led to some replanting.

"April was hot and dry, and May was cool and wet," Kerr said. "The beans just sat there, like 3 or 4 inches tall. It seemed like forever."

Kerr said some soybeans were replanted after repeated May rains, with planting and replanting continuing into early June. Some corn was also replanted, while wet conditions made side-dressing more difficult.

The weather pattern flipped again in July, when Kerr received only about an inch of rain for the month. Recent rainfall has helped, but the dry stretch took a toll on lighter soils.

"I think the dry weather probably hurt our corn," Kerr said. "I think we're going to have areas of 200-230 bushel, but I think we're going to have some 100-bushel areas on lighter ground that really took it hard."

Kerr said soybean plants have remained shorter than normal, but they are branching heavily and continue to bloom. He believes the crop can still finish well if August brings adequate rainfall.

Disease and insect pressure have been relatively light, with some Japanese beetle pressure in soybeans, but few other concerns. Kerr said the biggest story at harvest may ultimately be the variability within individual fields.

"I think there's going to be a lot of variation through the field," he said.

-- Matt Turner, FIRST Manager:

Throughout the season, field managers for Farmers' Independent Research of Seed Technologies (FIRST) coordinate unbiased, head-to-head field trials for commercial corn and soybean seed products.

A later-than-normal planting season didn't stop Indiana's corn crop from getting off to a strong start, according to Matt Turner, FIRST manager covering northern Indiana, southern Michigan and northwest Ohio.

"I generally try to start that last full week of April, but this year we really didn't start until about 10 days into May," he said. "Planting was a little delayed because of early-season moisture."

Once conditions improved, planting progressed quickly. Turner said emergence and stand establishment were excellent despite the delayed start. Heavy early-season rainfall caused some yellowing in some of the low-lying areas, but crops have since recovered. Disease and insect pressure have remained low, with only scattered gray leaf spot observed.

"I've not seen a lot of pressure from disease," he said. "A little bit of gray here and there, but really nothing to be concerned about."

Although higher input costs prompted some discussion about reducing fungicide applications, Turner said most growers ultimately stayed on schedule.

"I think people realized there's yield potential there, and we need to protect that yield," he said.

Turner is optimistic about corn yield potential, mentioning adequate soil moisture, lower temperatures during pollination and grain fill, and favorable weather. However, he noted later planting could lead to higher grain moisture at harvest.

Soybeans have been more variable than corn, with some shorter plants following excessive early moisture. Turner said August and September weather will ultimately determine soybean yields.

"It's hard to predict a soybean yield because a lot of times, soybean yield is made in August and September," he said.

While soybean disease pressure has remained light, Turner said he has observed some sudden death syndrome (SDS) and is watching for potential white mold later in the season.

-- Kevin and Amanda Pendleton, Tippecanoe County, Indiana:

Kevin Pendleton, joined by his daughter, Amanda, of Pendleton Ag Solutions near Lafayette, Indiana, said another year of localized weather created highly variable crop conditions across central Indiana, though their own fields have remained in good shape.

"We started planting around April 22 and finished by the end of April," Kevin said. "When we first planted, conditions were good. Then we got cold and wet, so the crop was a little staggered coming up."

The Pendletons said emergence was slower than normal, but once established, the crop held steady. "I don't feel like, to this date, our crop has ever stressed," Kevin said.

While localized heavy rains affected some of their customers, they reported little disease or insect pressure this season.

"We dragged our feet a little bit on our corn fungicide pass just because there wasn't anything out there," Kevin said. "But the crop looks good enough that it could be really good, and we didn't want to take a chance."

Kevin said heavier, localized rainfall earlier in the season likely trimmed soybean yield potential in the hardest-hit areas. He's also begun noticing lighter green coloring in corn, which he attributes to nitrogen loss from the season's heavy rains. Soybeans are shorter than normal this year but more heavily branched, which he sees as a positive sign for yield potential.

On the corn side, a two-week stretch of high heat pushed the crop along quickly. Last year's farm average was 264 bpa, the farm's second highest ever. Kevin expects this year's crop to remain strong despite some drowned-out spots. He noted that August and September weather will ultimately determine how the soybean crop finishes.

EllaMae Reiff can be reached at ellamae.reiff@dtn.com

Follow her on social platform X @ellareiff

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.